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Journal of The Korean Society of Emergency Medicine 2005;16(6): 613-619. |
| How many emergency physicians does Korea need? |
| Sang Mo Je, Young Hwan Choi, Yoo Seuk Park, Young Soon Cho, Seung Ho Kim |
| Department of Emergency Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea. edksh@yumc.yonsei.ac.kr. |
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| ABSTRACT |
PURPOSE:
This research used mathematical modeling to project the supply and demand of emergency physicians over the next decade in Korea.
METHODS:
A model was used to project the annual emergency physicians (EP) workforce supply and demand through the year 2015. The mathematical equations used were as follows: Supply = number of emergency physicians at the beginning of the year plus annual residency graduates minus annual attrition; Demand formula I = 5.29 fulltime equivalent positions/emergency department (ED) x the number of hospital EDs, Demand formula II = annual ED visits/(4,700visits/EP/year), Demand formula III = (11 to 16 EP per major referral ED) + (6 to 8 EP per urban district/ regional hospital ED).
RESULTS:
While the most conservative demand projection was 1,505 EPs in the year 2015, the most aggressive supply estimate with a yearly supply of 120 new EPs and a 1% attrition rate was 1,362 EPs in that year.
CONCLUSIONS:
In Korea, emergency physicians will remain in short supply for the next ten years, even at the present levels of EM residency output. |
| Key words:
Manpower, Residency, Emergency medicine |
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